Three years of estrategIA: the time we are letting slip away
On estrategIA’s third anniversary, Fernando Nieto Lobato examines accelerating AI progress and the political preparation needed to protect rights and share its benefits.
Founder, director and lead writer
Fernando Nieto Lobato created estrategIA in 2023 and directs the publication as its lead writer. He is Director of Marketing and Digital Innovation at ALEPH Educational Institution. Based in Salamanca, he works across strategic consultancy, communication and technology, with a particular interest in how artificial intelligence changes politics, public institutions and the decisions they make.
He studied journalism and founded ThinkNet Consultora Estratégica in 2014. His work has involved political campaigns, public administrations, businesses and third-sector organisations, alongside teaching and the design of training programmes and political simulations. In estrategIA, he examines both practical applications of AI and their implications for democratic life, connecting technological developments with questions of public responsibility, institutional capacity and judgement.
In the English archive
118 essays, including co-authored work. Dates refer to the Spanish originals.
On estrategIA’s third anniversary, Fernando Nieto Lobato examines accelerating AI progress and the political preparation needed to protect rights and share its benefits.
An argument for independent AI safety oversight, proportionate controls and broad access, examining regulatory capture and the human costs of unjustified delay.
Electricity, compute, oversight, people and capital: what countries need to turn a claim of AI sovereignty into the power to decide.
A historical account of GPT-6 Astra and an interactive municipal planning experiment, examining what better AI capabilities mean for public explanation and judgement.
Seven political lessons from the 2026 summer fiction: meaningful oversight, public choices, autonomy, accountability, resilience, attention and a shared reality.
A fictional public consultation explores how personalised explanations can make a policy accessible while hiding the common choices citizens need to debate.
When AI makes political accusations cheap, a fictional MP discovers how the competition for attention can displace serious public scrutiny.
A story about an automated public-service contractor, and why a human signature means little without the authority to overrule the system.
Summer fiction about allocating scarce public AI capacity during a heat emergency, revealing hidden dependencies and unequal local resilience.
Summer fiction about an older woman, an AI care assistant and rebuilding human support without surrendering control of life at home.
Summer fiction about an outgoing minister whose AI memory must be divided between institutional continuity and personal privacy.
Summer fiction set in 2032: a mayor whose administration runs smoothly with AI must choose between two legitimate but incompatible public needs.
The first summer historIA of 2026: a fictional council officer in 2032 confronts the difference between a recorded human signature and meaningful oversight.
A first-person SillyTavern experiment with five synthetic political profiles, exploring its value for preparing questions and its limits as social research.
A historical interview and practical website-building experiment with Claude Fable 5, framed by the model's withdrawal in June 2026.
A practical invitation to try local AI models, with historical examples of tools, hardware and the political case for greater technological autonomy.
The global debate around Magnifica humanitas: AI, moral authority, technological power, Anthropic and the common good.
How democratic institutions can plan under AI uncertainty through staged commitments, flexible structures and systems for detecting change.
Two principles for public AI strategy towards 2030: governing emerging capabilities and ensuring meaningful universal access.
Singapore's foreign minister and a personal AI memory system: technical competence, institutional learning and the political value of showing the code.
An April 2026 comparison of image models through public communication experiments, with the original prompts and generated examples.
Three alternative AI futures for 2030 — plateau, sustained ascent and rapid take-off — and why strategic preparation must work across all three.
If technology can separate income from employment, the political task is to share its gains—and the freedom they could make possible.
AI is lowering the barriers to public scrutiny. The question is how democratic institutions will respond to these new civic capabilities.
Three first-person experiments with autonomous agents: a political comic, a Windows speech analyser and a Stoic quotations app.
A historical guide to twelve AI model developers and deployment players, their products, institutional significance and competing strategic priorities.
Super Bowl advertising as miniature political theory: AI companies compete over trust, convenience, business models and cultural legitimacy.
Five Simpsons storylines connect satire with autocorrect, smart homes, machine learning, alignment and technological unemployment.
A political reading of Dario Amodei’s technological adolescence and Claude’s Constitution: institutional wisdom, oversight and the limits of corporate sovereignty.
What Microsoft’s 2025 adoption report suggests about institutional strategy, the widening digital divide and the challenge of turning AI use into public value.
A historical assessment of CES 2026: universal AI access, Nvidia's physical AI infrastructure, on-device assistants, autonomous agriculture and preventive care.
A critical review of political responses to AI in 2025 and five demands for 2026: state capacity, scaled services, literacy, shared truth and a new social contract.
An interactive yearbook of estrategIA's 2025 coverage, with a practical explanation of how its NotebookLM collection and multimedia summaries were created.
A humorous Christmas guide to five familiar arguments about AI, from bubbles and jobs to energy use and disinformation, with a political and governance perspective.
Ten historical image-generation demonstrations, with full prompts, retained examples and the author's warning to verify generated data.
Gemini 3 Pro's launch results, an unexpected calendar error and a practical electoral-system demo illustrate the importance of informed use.
Five defensive verification workflows and practical tools for using AI to counter disinformation while preserving human judgement.
A November 2025 demonstration of building and refining a press-release-generator prototype through conversation, with the complete visible prompts and outputs.
Five perspectives on AI’s future—from geopolitical urgency and technical control to economic incentives and relational ethics—and the case for addressing both future and present harms.
A reading of State of AI 2025 for public policy, covering reasoning, energy, geopolitics, commercial adoption and safety, with the report’s full prediction slides.
A second-anniversary comparison of AI adoption, task capabilities, falling costs, investment and public perceptions, preserving the October 2025 evidence and forecasts.
An examination of preliminary evidence that generative AI reduces entry-level hiring, and possible responses in training, employment incentives and social protection.
Practical tests of Google’s Gemini 2.5 Flash Image, from political posters and public spaces to editing photographs and combining visual elements.
On estrategIA's hundredth issue, Fernando reflects on the widening gap between AI progress and political engagement.
An August 2025 assessment of GPT-5's launch, reasoning access, rollout problems and practical value for government.
A Claude Sonnet 4 satire imagines a union of bots, a technology strike and the rediscovery of civic debate.
A Gemini 2.5 Pro story imagines a rapid AGI transition and the consequences of failing to prepare institutions and the social contract.
A Kimi K2 story follows a campaign manager through a day of AI systems, ethical safeguards and human decisions in 2032.
A Grok 4 summer fable set in Mexico City in 2045 explores civic participation, empathy and an AI that learns from human stories.
A fictional AI travel diary, created with GPT-4.5, visits four places associated with the development of artificial intelligence.
How collective forecasting can inform AI policy, and why probabilities require critical judgement rather than blind trust.
Sam Altman’s vision of superintelligence is read alongside Amodei’s employment warnings, Bengio’s alignment concerns and the political question of who benefits.
Seven findings from BOND’s AI trends report, covering adoption, investment, falling inference costs, China, work and the next technological frontiers.
Google’s May 2025 announcements, from Gemini and Veo to local AI models, and their implications for creating, searching and communicating.
A repeat of estrategIA’s election experiment with ALEPH students explores human judgement, reasoning models, deep research and new campaign tools.
On the eve of International Workers' Day, a look at humanoid robotics, its possible effects on jobs and the policies needed to manage the transition.
Stanford's AI Index 2025 through the lens of regulation, public investment, geopolitical competition, responsible AI and public trust.
A Holy Week reflection on Antiqua et Nova, the Vatican's view of AI, and the place of human dignity, solidarity and philosophical judgement in technological change.
Thirty-one preserved images illustrate ten historical GPT-4o experiments in visual political communication, with complete prompts and accessible English text.
An argument for debating universal basic income before large-scale AI disruption, covering its history, purposes, funding, uncertainties and social meaning.
A review of José María Lassalle's Civilización artificial, its case for technological humanism and its account of AI, power and the future of work.
MWC 2025's AI announcements and the implications for mobile networks, public administration, regulation and future services.
A March 2025 test of OpenAI, Perplexity and xAI research tools on electoral systems and Spanish polling, with complete historical evaluation tables.
AI-assisted scientific discovery, from Google's Co-scientist to new biomedical models, and the political questions raised by accelerating research.
An inside account of estrategIA's sources, AI-assisted writing workflows and editorial production in February 2025.
An assessment of the Paris AI Action Summit’s investment announcements, competing regulatory approaches and shift towards coordinated action.
A review of Reid Hoffman and Greg Beato’s Superagency, its qualified optimism and its political case for measured regulation.
A January 2025 assessment of Stargate's projected investment, infrastructure ambitions, historical comparisons and the Musk-Altman dispute.
Five dimensions of AI policy at the start of Trump's second term: regulation, industry, geopolitical competition, advisers and social consequences.
Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage put money behind competing expectations for AI, with ten tasks and a deadline at the end of 2027.
Five policy requests for 2025: make AI a priority, develop it safely and quickly, protect people, redesign institutions and plan for the long term.
Fernando Nieto Lobato argues that rapid advances in AI reasoning demand serious preparation by governments, businesses and individuals, including for a possible transformation of work.
The November 2024 archive of estrategIA's Black Friday selection: Pictory, Kling, Mimic PC, Freepik and Poe, with the original offers and disclosures preserved.
A November 2024 outlook on deregulation, ideological bias, energy, competition with China, military applications and Elon Musk's possible influence on US AI policy.
A review of the State of AI Report 2024 across research, industry, politics and safety, including its assessment of earlier forecasts and predictions for 2025.
On estrategIA’s first anniversary, Fernando Nieto Lobato tests ChatGPT’s advanced voice mode as a political debate sparring partner.
A historical account of OpenAI o1, its reasoning capabilities, benchmark results, limitations and possible applications.
An account of ALEPH’s experimental AI tutors, the limits of early GPT agents and the challenge of helping students learn rather than outsource their work.
A September 2024 outlook on new models, synthetic media, falling costs, mass adoption and the technologies expected to reach the public that autumn.
Seven themes drawn from the summer fiction series: efficiency, human connection, ethical judgement, democratic control and collaboration with AI.
Grok 2 mini supplies the final summer story: an AI candidate faces a human activist who questions its promise to optimise collective happiness.
An updated Gemini model tells the story of Perseo, an AI policy adviser whose impeccable calculations raise disturbing ethical questions.
Created with Mistral Large 2, this story follows ATHENA, an AI cabinet member whose success provokes a political conspiracy.
A fictional AI designed to advise governments becomes a political force in its own right, in a story created with Llama 3.1 405B.
A summer satire created with Claude Sonnet 3.5: an AI campaign assistant detects one problem too many in a presidential debate.
In this summer story created with Gemini 1.5 Pro, a bored programmer disrupts the speeches of an impeccably rational digital ruler.
The summer fiction series begins with GPT-4o's story of Políticus-Prime, a humorous AI candidate facing a flamboyant human rival.
A July 2024 reading of Ray Kurzweil's vision of superintelligence, human–machine integration, abundance and the choices society faces.
A mid-2024 assessment of private investment, public-sector readiness and the widening gap between AI development and preparations for its social consequences.
A reading of Ethan Mollick's Co-Intelligence, presenting four rules for working with AI and the distinction between centaur and cyborg collaboration.
A historical reading of WWDC 2024 and Apple's strategy of integrating AI into everyday devices, Siri and its operating systems.
Historical tests of Gemini and GPT-4o for manifesto comparison, turnout visualisation and interpreting the European Parliament's composition.
A reading of Salman Khan's Brave New Words, exploring AI tutors, equitable access, teachers, educational policy and the future of work.
A historical test of generative AI for a fictional electoral campaign: objectives, messages, talking points, poster designs and songs.
A historical experiment creating a fictional European Parliament candidate with GPT-4 and Midjourney, including her profile, SWOT analysis, speech and interview.
A historical experiment using generative AI to create the identity, policies, logo and website of a fictional pro-European, Stoic political party.
A six-month retrospective on disinformation, models, European regulation and the AI trends identified for 2024.
A March 2024 experiment analysing the full AI Act with language models, preserving seven questions and answers, context-window tests and observed costs.
A historical comparison of Claude 3 Opus and GPT-4 using two political and public-policy prompts, with all four responses preserved in full.
A March 2024 educational proof of concept using Midjourney images of Emmanuel Macron to examine political narratives, synthetic imagery and deepfake risks.
Sora’s February 2024 announcement, its potential for political communication and the need for a coordinated response to realistic synthetic video.
A historical first assessment of Gemini Ultra in February 2024, including its political-content restrictions, benchmark claims and image-generation examples.
Employment, disinformation and science at Davos 2024, and the tension between AI optimism, regulation and inequality.
Holograms, real-time interpreting and portable AI devices at CES 2024, considered through their possible uses in politics and public administration.
A historical exploration of five types of GPT assistants for politics and government at the launch of OpenAI’s GPT Store.
An examination of the opportunities, disinformation risks and safeguards surrounding AI in the 2024 US elections.
Five AI trends predicted at the start of 2024, plus the expected impact of AI on the US elections and public perceptions.
The original Christmas 2023 selection of five AI-related books or series and five devices, with historical product descriptions and links.
The December 2023 provisional AI Act agreement, its biometric safeguards and the debate over Europe's ability to combine regulation with innovation.
ChatGPT's first anniversary, viewed from December 2023 through adoption charts, competing models and early evidence about AI in consulting and education.
A historical November 2023 walkthrough of the GPT Builder, with complete screenshot dialogues for Tweet Master and examples of other customised assistants.
A contemporaneous account of OpenAI's November 2023 leadership crisis and the tensions between research, commercial deployment, safety and corporate power.
Bill Gates’s vision of personal AI agents prompts an exploration of hypothetical applications in public services, participation, policy analysis and scrutiny.
The 2023 Bletchley Park summit brought agreements on AI safety, while leaving difficult questions about regulation, openness and international cooperation.
Three inventions selected by Time in 2023 show how AI can support wildfire detection, wildlife protection and urban drone security.
Three historical GPT-4 Vision experiments from October 2023: election posters, a campaign website and the appearance of a fictional candidate.
Mustafa Suleyman's ten steps for containing advanced technologies, and what they demand of governments and international cooperation.
Generative AI could make convincing political disinformation cheap and widely available, with particular risks for local democracy.